Egypt Critical News Update #9

The Uprising- Phase II

I am happy to report that the long awaited second phase in the uprising seems to have finally kicked in. For the first time we are hearing of meetings and councils being convened in order to chart the self determined path to transition and self-rule. Also comprehensive lists of goals and objectives are emerging. This, as the US arrogantly continues to try to impose itself as a transition power broker by unilaterally deciding it is its place to offer Mubarak several transition options...So, let's see if i get this: The US puppet regime is collapsing in a popular uprising, and the US, which is single-handedly responsible for sustaining the regimes criminal policies and longevity, now wants to publicly and shamelessly dictate to the Egyptian people the terms of its surrender? Is there no end to the madness of Empire?

In thinking about composing a critical update to address this madness, I felt it was time to feature some analysis which reflected what Ï've been obseving and noticing with regards to the US political machinations that have been developing around Egypt in the last few days.

There were many options to draw from, as every lefty academic and their grandmothers have come out of the woodwork to put forth their particular enlightened perspectives. Not a bad thing, mind you, but often overwhelming. Then I encountered the piece I am publishing below by an anonymous writer posting to the Al Jazeera blog I've been participating in for the last few days. In my opinion, it is a great piece and I am happy to share it with you all.

By jamal1936:

The Night before Friday....

Sitting at my desk in Manchester, I can’t help having these weird feelings. I am worried about my brothers in Egypt on one side and feeling hopeful on the other. But, come to think of it, i am not the only one having these feelings:

Mourad, in Tahrir Sq, is also worried. Worried about the tanks, still under the control of the system, he doesn’t want to show his fears but for sure he is worried. He is worried about the guns of the police and their new partners the Thugs (Baltajiya). Yet, just like me he is hopeful & determined that tomorrow will be a better day for him and all of Egypt.

Oum Murad, Mourad’s mother, is also worried. She fears for her son. She knows, from experience, that the system is not to be trusted. Yet, she is proud that her son is writing a new chapter of Egypt’s history with his courage and determination.

The system is very worried too. Not for Mubarak, he is expandable, and he is finished of course, but, for itself. The government was counting on plan A and a contingency plan B:

A: Confrontation. The Mubarak regime was counting on its security apparatus to quash the uprising with brute force. This tactic has always worked in the past. Mubarak did not foresee the large number of youth determined to overthrow him, The police was overwhelmed and defeated. The West (USA+) at this stage is in contact with Mubarak who reassured them that this would be dealt with and there is nothing to worry about. Guess what, the West believed him and took his word for granted. That’s why they were taken by surprise initially.


B:Deceit . The regime has a pocket of dirty tricks up its sleeves. It ordered the police to swap the formal uniform for civilian clothes. Recruited thugs (baltajiya) and tried to discredit the protesters. It has counted on a violent reaction from the young ones once they are attacked. That would have given him a justifiable reason to call in the army. His propaganda machine failed miserably. The population refused to blame the protesters for all inconveniences caused or their material loss. They are convinced that the price is worth paying.

The west (USA +EU) is very, very worried . Once they have realized that Mubarak is no longer in control of the situation in Egypt. They found themselves in a real mess. On one hand Mubarak himself is a liability and on the other hand they don’t know what to do next. They know what they want (another Mubarak and security for Israel). They know where to go but they don’t know how to get there.

  Mubarak is a Liability for the West. But they can’t wash their hands off in public. He has been a loyal ally for years. To dump him in public would really send the wrong signal to all other allies (there are few of them in the area ). Understandably, the conservatives are the main ones in the US behind the support Mubarak is getting from the States. The Liberals in the US and the less experienced (Obama & Hilary) are the ones calling for a "democratic change" in Egypt. However, let’s not be fooled. By now the new American administration is in full swing. They had time to reflect on the destination and for sure they have now a driver, a vehicle and a road map their hand. And all they need now is time to get there:

The driver is Mr Sulieman ( the US had 30 years to clone Mubarak !) a carbon copy of Mubarak. Kept in the backroom all these time and now called upon to steer Egypt in the same direction it had before. A secular, driver with an Israel friendly driving license.

The vehicle is the same old Egyptian system. Dents on the bonnet, broken windows, failing brakes and plenty of paint scratches everywhere. But do not be fooled this vehicle is still capable of going from A to B. All it needs is a few repairs here and there, and a good polish.

The map is a simple one. It has only one straight line( Containment Strategy) from A to B. The West does not have much options. There is no scenic road on the way. They can’t intervene directly this is suicide. Besides, the West cannot afford another Iraq or Afghanistan . The west cannot support free and fair election an Egypt. They know for sure it will lead to an overwhelming majority for the Islamists (Brotherhood).

They only have one option : Contain Egypt by directing the political process toward one objective . Suleiman will be the new president. He will create a new political party called “******* Democrate” (he will give the impression that he is a democrat and for renewal). Its members, structure and infrastructure will come from the The National Party ( Alwatani). He will recruit new young inexperienced and economically needy activists. The System is wealthy and has the US as backers. This is a recipe for success. All it needs is time . That’s why they need 9 months. Alwatani will be the one to blame and will get punished in the next elections. It will be reduced in size and power, but it will remain friendly ally to the new party when it calls upon him. There would be loads of political parties by names only (divide and rule). They will be bribed into forming a secular alliance to balance the 15 to 20% of Muslim Brothers.

Suleiman will keep keys posts (Foreign, interior & finance) they will give Tourism and culture to their allies and ask the Brothers to solve Housing & Employment problems.
Israel will be safe. The west Happy.