Egypt Critical News Update #13-COUP WARNING

  

Update # 13 Brings: COUP WARNING DAY!


I was half jokingly concerned this morning about the luck of the movement on this number13 update, but even more so, and not jokingly, about the consequences of Suleiman openly telling Egyptians yesterday that in light of the failed negotiations between himself and the demonstrators, they country should accept the possibility of a military coup as the only way left to restore order and maintain national security.

Suleiman's words were not a hollow threat, but come with a executable plan. A plan which again, like the fake negotiations which aimed to keep the regime intact, is being painted as a capitulation to the demands of the movement. The army is making a lot of noise today and testing the waters for stepping in to serve as the transitional process force towards a more "democratic" Egypt.

Suharto-Pinochet flashback anyone?

Sequence of events: 

The military's "Supreme Council", which in entire history had only met twice before-in 1967 and 1973, has met again today to "study its position towards the present crisis".  Supposedly free of Mubarak's tutelage, but with ample reports showing that Suleiman is being closely briefed about all the discussions taking place, they have released an ambiguous statement which confirms its “commitment and responsibility to safeguard the people and to protect the interests of the nation, and its duty to protect the riches and assets of the people and of Egypt”. Statement mentioned the demands of the people are “lawful and legitimate”.  As a result of what actions was the army to do all of the above, the statement didn't say...COUP!

Meanwhile, the CIA chief reportedly says there is a "strong likelihood" Mubarak will step down tonight. Unconfirmed reports abound of him already having left Cairo with his core staff for the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, but there are also reports that he's about to speak on national television as I write this. Regardless of his whereabouts and speeches, The US defense department and state department spokes people have done nothing but distance themselves recently from both him and Suleiman and have provided no clue to what other names they can see themselves dealing with in a post-Mubarak Egypt... COUP!

To provide greater disturbing insight into what might be cooking here, the Council of Wise Men's has, at least publicly, claim to have given up on its treacherous attempt at co-opting the demands of the movement. As a going away gift to the demonstrators, Naguid Sagiris, the council's tycoon leader, yesterday in an interview by  French newspaper Le Figaro (a whole day ahead of the recent noise about the military assuming the transition) said that: "I will wait till the military coup to return..." With this, and other similarly prophetic words of spite and warning, he got on a plane to his family's seashore resort of Gouna...COUP!

Egyptian state television has been showing pictures of army personnel and demonstrators shaking hands stating "A new day is dawning for Egypt"...COUP!

Just in case I did not express my fears concretely enough, everything I am reading and hearing in my paranoid "Uruguay 1973 Coup Formula Repeat" head, points in the direction that the regime is cooking up a COUP to overthrow itself under the guise of ushering in a new dawn in the advancement of democratic change. A  military, which is almost completely dependent for its might and existence on US military aid dollars, has never been known to be the best agency for democratic transitions... Yet this is what is being branded as by the media and other moderate political forces calling for "orderly democratic change".

The way I see it, this is counter-revolution strategy #5 by the regime.
Strategy 1-Brutal repression. Failed.
Strategy 2- breeding of street chaos and the fabrication of a non existent but violent pro-regime political force. Failed.
Strategy 3- Attempted co-optation of the movement's demands through false negotiations that agreed to most points except the exit of the regime, making any of the points moot. Failed.
Strategy 4-discrediting movement in the public eye through state controlled media as an economic liability and anti national interest and foreign powers agents. Failed.

Meanwhile, they had always been building up to strategy 5, as the last resort. A military coup disguised as a neutral transition power broker engineered by the regime and acceptable to US interests. The US will claim this is the self-choice of Egyptians, totally disown but still allow Mubarak and his cronies to leave Egypt with billions of national treasure, and then throw itself as a friend of the people in full support of Egypt's democratic forces, now under the transitional guidance of their faithful military forces...nice plan, but it wont work. People are already awake and watching.

To point to the huge discrepancies being reported here's a brief excerpt of the real time Al Jazeera blog I've been monitoring:

Earlier this morning:

There are reports of Army detentions and torture of protesters at a makeshift detention center set up at the antiquities museum. Protesters report brutal beatings and tens of demonstrators that were detained earlier are unaccounted for.

7:53pm: Leader of opposition Karama movement tells Al Jazeera he believes "the military approached Mubarak and told him it was time to go".

7:50pm: More on that concern of the Muslim Brotherhood. " It looks like a military coup," said the Brotherhood's Essam al-Erian. "I feel worry and anxiety. The problem is not with the president, it is with the regime."

7:44pm: "If General Sulieman or the military take over, that is of great concern to everyone," says Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin. "While the military is very much respected, people here want to see a transition from military rule to civilian rule." The past four leaders of Egypt have had a military background.

7:19pm: A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood reports concern the military is seizing power. Meanwhile, a US State department briefing has been postponed until a time "to be determined".

7:12pm Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh, reports that people around her in Tahrir Square have a strong sense of anticipation - people believe their moment has come. 

Right now, I want nothing else than to be proven wrong about this nasty little theory of mine. Nothing else. Even if I am right,  I trust the Egyptian people will prevent any such political calamity to occur.

Tomorrow's mass demonstration for the fallen, may bring attempts at a peaceful take over of the State TV station, or maybe even of some of the ministries. It will be then hen both the resolve of the people as well as the position of the mid level military officers in charge of the street troops will be tested...I am hoping for a repeat of Venezuela during the attempted coup there, where it was these mid level officers which prevented the top brass organized coup from succeeding. One can only hope. "

"Army if you wont help, then get out of the way. Whatever you do, do not turn on the people or they shall hunt you until every single one of you is caught and made to pay dearly for your crimes..." (anonymous blog post).


 

On other important news, which are awesome but rather overshadowed by the first rather troubling part of this report: 

* There is a new demand's document that has emerged from the Square reaffirming some of the old demands.
Al Jazeera’s Hoda Abdel-Hamid, reporting from Cairo, confirmed the new demands of those in Tahrir Square include the entire administration to resign – not just President Mubarak.  They want a one-year transitional period before full parliamentary elections - during which a three-person presidential council should run the country while a panel of experts write a new, permanent  constitution – taking advice from opposition groups and senior, high-profile Egyptians, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

* Labor continues to defy the regime and keeps mobilizing with demands for better wages all across the country..This from Labor Notes

Protests in Egypt escalated this week when thousands of emboldened workers across the country walked off or sat down on the job. More than 20,000 workers across Egypt stayed home Wednesday, demanding mostly economic rather than political concessions.


Some, however, are calling for the authoritarian government’s officials to leave power. Striking electrical workers in Cairo called on the director of the state-owned South Cairo Electrical Company to resign and public transit workers locked buses in garages Thursday, threatening to shut down the city’s bus service if Mubarak remains in office. A full-scale transit strike could provoke major problems for the government in a society where most don't have cars. Postal, petroleum, and rail workers also lent their clout to the movement this week.

Workers in the critical Suez Canal Authority have taken perhaps the most important action of all, launching a 6,000-strong sitdown strike that began Tuesday evening. While their demands center on pay and working conditions, the sheer force of their leverage has implications for the entire Egyptian uprising. The action appears to be a wildcat strike.

Submitted by DM- "Growing discontent with underemployment, unemployment and poor wages has resulted in wide spread organized labor strikes and sit ins throughout Egypt, although at this time the unions remain fractured and dispersed, only time will tell if they will emerge as one movement. Should a cohesive labor strike movement form, will the military step in to "safeguard the people and to protect the interests of the nation, and its duty to protect the riches and assets of the people and of Egypt"?  Not if the people have their say, instead of the voices of multinational corporations, foreign powers and their national puppets.  

In closing, I think the military needs to go back to their barracks where they should stay until told by the people to come out to help rebuild the country, instead than until order by neoliberal dictators to come out to oppress the masses, as they seem to have done now.